We consider clustering based on significance tests for Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our starting point is the SigClust method developed by Liu et al. (2008), which introduces a test based on the k-means objective (with k = 2) to decide whether the data should be split into two clusters. When applied recursively, this test yields a method for hierarchical clustering that is equipped with a significance guarantee. We study the limiting distribution and power of this approach in some examples and show that there are large regions of the parameter space where the power is low. We then introduce a new test based on the idea of relative fit. Unlike prior work, we test for whether a mixture of Gaussians provides a better fit relative to a single Gaussian, without assuming that either model is correct. The proposed test has a simple critical value and provides provable error control. One version of our test provides exact, finite sample control of the type I error. We show how our tests can be used for hierarchical clustering as well as in a sequential manner for model selection. We conclude with an extensive simulation study and a cluster analysis of a gene expression dataset.

Embedding complex objects as vectors in low dimensional spaces is a longstanding problem in machine learning. We propose in this work an extension of that approach, which consists in embedding objects as elliptical probability distributions, namely distributions whose densities have elliptical level sets. We endow these measures with the 2-Wasserstein metric, with two important benefits: (i) For such measures, the squared 2-Wasserstein metric has a closed form, equal to the sum of the squared Euclidean distance between means and the squared Bures metric between covariance matrices. The latter is a Riemannian metric between positive semi-definite matrices, which turns out to be Euclidean on a suitable factor representation of such matrices, which is valid on the entire geodesic between these matrices. (ii) The 2-Wasserstein distance boils down to the usual Euclidean metric when comparing Diracs, and therefore provides the natural framework to extend point embeddings. We show that for these reasons Wasserstein elliptical embeddings are more intuitive and yield tools that are better behaved numerically than the alternative choice of Gaussian embeddings with the Kullback-Leibler divergence. In particular, and unlike previous work based on the KL geometry, we learn elliptical distributions that are not necessarily diagonal. We demonstrate the interest of elliptical embeddings by using them for visualization, to compute embeddings of words, and to reflect entanglement or hypernymy.